Valencia vs Real Madrid (Euroleague): odds and picks 11.11.2025

ACB/Euroleague classic with a playoff feel. With Valencia at 1.94 and Real Madrid at 1.85, the market sees the Whites as slight favourites, but the Roig Arena levels the playing field considerably. For me, the key lies in rebounding (Costello/Pradilla closing down their hoop) and pace: if Valencia imposes half court with extra passing and takes care of turnovers (≤12), they can take the game to a close finish.

Madrid comes in with more experience and depth on the bench. If Campazzo wins the point of attack and Tavares/Poirier avoid fouling out, the Whites will force you to take tough shots and manage closures with a cool head. It will be a close game, where the third quarter usually dictates the trend.

Information: date, time and where to watch the game

• Competition: Euroleague
• Date: Tuesday 11 November

Odds for the winner of the Valencia vs Real Madrid match

 (Reference odds; may vary until the time of the match)

Latest news from Valencia

Valencia is reliable at home: well-oiled defence, patience in finding the corner and a stretch 4 (Reuvers/Pradilla) to free up Costello on the short roll. Key: don’t get into the bonus early and protect your basket; if you do, Madrid will struggle to run.

Probable starting five and key players

• Point guard: Darius Thompson
• Shooting guard: Kameron Taylor
• Small forward: Josep Puerto
• Power forward: Nate Reuvers / Jaime Pradilla
• Centre: Matt Costello / Yankuba Sima

Reading: Thompson to set the tempo and go one-on-one; Taylor drives up the court and plays physically on the wings; Puerto, 3&D; Reuvers/Pradilla open up 45º; Costello sets inside and punishes continuations. If the 3P ≥36%, Roig pushes.

Valencia: breaking news

Priorities: long-range losses, close defensive rebounds and punish white help with pick&pop. Watch out for fouls by the 5; with Costello conditioned, control of the glass falls and creation from the short-roll suffers.

Current situation in the Euroleague

At home, reliable and with very serious defensive peaks. Suffers when it rushes two attacks in a row and concedes transition. If it’s tied at 30′, its circulation and atmosphere sustain it.

Latest news from Real Madrid

A tall and reliable frontcourt. Campazzo commands and punishes the slightest mistake; Musa/Hezonja create advantages without overpowering; Deck acts as the glue; Tavares/Poirier change the geometry on both sides. In close finishes, Madrid thrives on free throws and surgical selection.

Probable starting five and key players

• Point guard: Facundo Campazzo
• Shooting guard: Dzanan Musa
• Small forward: Gabriel Deck
• Power forward: Mario Hezonja / Guerschon Yabusele
• Centre: Walter Tavares / Vincent Poirier

Key points: average pace, dominate the glass and deny the corner. If Campazzo wins the point of attack and the 5 gets to the final quarter clean, the Whites manage with skill.

Real Madrid: breaking news

Plan: force mismatches in the middle post, punish over-help with front three-pointers and load up on offensive rebounds in stretches. Warning sign: turnovers in the frontcourt that trigger a Taronja transition.

Current situation in the Euroleague

Extremely competitive “home court”: even with average accuracy, rebounding + defence puts them in a good position. Danger: Valencia’s home streak if they don’t control the bonus.

Recent clashes between Valencia and Real Madrid

Recent pattern: Real Madrid has the advantage when it dominates rebounds and free throws; Valencia fights back when it limits turnovers, activates pick & pop and finds the corner. At the Roig, games are usually decided by mini-runs in the third quarter and foul management in the fifth.

Summary of key factors in this match

• Pace: medium-slow → Valencia; more possessions → Madrid.
• Rebounding: Tavares/Poirier vs Costello/Sima, battle of the day.
• Taronja turnovers (≤12): red line to avoid runs.
• Corner three-pointers (Valencia) and front three-pointers (Madrid), thermometer.
• Centre fouls (both): determine bonus and spacing.
• 3Q run: usual window for a breakaway.

Valencia vs Real Madrid: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Real Madrid +3.5 Asian handicap. Cuota 1.50

A close contest. With the +3.5 cushion and Madrid’s reliability in closing games, the position is solid even with a surge from Roig. If they control the rebound and don’t give away transitions, they should cover.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid winning margin 1-5 points. Cuota 3.25

It fits with the odds and the script: a tactical game, lots of long possessions and a two-possession finish. I see a +2/+4 as very plausible if Campazzo controls the final stretch and the white 5 avoids his fourth foul.