Villarreal vs Barcelona (La Liga): odds and picks 21.12.2025

This Villarreal–Barça match has all the makings of a big game: first against third, and with the feeling that it is not a leader against a contender, but a duel between two teams in the midst of a winning streak. Barcelona leads the table with a brutal offensive output, while Villarreal has settled into the upper echelons with very solid numbers and several games in hand. The qualifying context means that the margin for error is minimal for both teams.

For me, the keys are clear: La Cerámica is proving to be a safe haven for the Submarine, a stadium where they concede little and compete better than anyone, but Flick’s Barça arrive as a veritable goal-scoring machine. With the recent history between the two sides and the attacking form of both teams, I expect an open game, with a high tempo and plenty of chances, where accuracy in the box will make the difference.

Villarreal

Marcelino’s Villarreal seems to me right now to be one of the most reliable teams in LaLiga to compete against anyone. They are on a very positive run in the league, with several consecutive victories that have allowed them to consolidate their position at the top. They don’t win by crushing their opponents, but by knowing how to suffer and choose their moments well, which for me is a clear sign of competitive maturity.

They are particularly strong at home. La Cerámica has become an uncomfortable venue for the big teams: the team concedes little, is organised without the ball and takes full advantage of their opponents’ mistakes. Recent results against direct rivals confirm this feeling of strength at home, where Villarreal always finds a way to compete until the end.

However, the context is not perfect. In the Copa del Rey and in Europe, they have suffered heavy defeats that show that when they lose their organisation or concentration, they can collapse. That is why this match will be very much about emotional and physical management. If Marcelino can count on key players such as Gerard Moreno and Parejo being in good condition, Villarreal will be much more threatening between the lines and from set pieces. Up front, the mobility of Ayoze and Mikautadze could hurt a Barça defence that struggles when attacked in space.

Barcelona

My reading of Barça is quite clear: they are a team that thrives on attack and, right now, have more than enough resources to score against anyone. They lead the league by a wide margin thanks to their ability to create chances from control and also from transition. Flick has managed to make the team more vertical without completely losing possession.

They are also in very good spirits, with important victories in both the league and the knockout stages, many of them away from home. That tells me that Barça have learned to compete even when the game is not comfortable. Away from home, they still concede a little more than they should, but they make up for it with their striking power and individual talent.

For me, this match is a test of maturity. Villarreal is one of the few teams that does not sit back at home and dares to challenge for the ball. Barça could suffer after losing possession, especially if the opposition finds their forwards quickly. Much will depend on the starting eleven: if Lamine Yamal is inspired, Barça gains a key advantage; if the match becomes more positional, they will need patience and precision to avoid frustration.

My predictions for Villarreal vs Barcelona

BeniThe conservative one

Barcelona draw no bet. Odds 1.50

Here I am looking for protection. Villarreal are very strong at home and I don’t think this is a match to happily go for a fixed 2. Even so, Barça arrive as leaders and with a winning dynamic that I find hard to go against. Barcelona’s no draw seems to me to be the most sensible option: if they draw, it’s a refund; if Barça impose their quality, we get paid. For me, it’s a well-adjusted odds to the real risk of the match.

BetoThe bold one

Half-time/Full-time: Barcelona/Barcelona. Odds 2.85

Here I’m going to take a chance with a specific scenario. I think that if Barça manages to take an early lead, they can dominate the match through possession and punish Villarreal when they have to take risks. Flick’s team is very reliable when it takes the lead and knows how to manage its advantage. In addition, Villarreal is coming off a demanding schedule, and I wouldn’t rule out a somewhat more subdued start. At these odds, half-time/full-time in Barça’s favour seems like an ambitious but sensible bet to me.