Analysis of the 2026 World Cup groups: What are each team’s chances of winning their group?

Looking at the odds for the 2026 World Cup, we’ve come across the group stage. To make things clearer, we’ve converted the odds into approximate implied probabilities. Just so we’re on the same page! The higher the percentage, the more likely the market thinks that team is to finish top of their group.

Spain, Brazil and England among the clear favourites

If we look at all the groups as a whole, there are several teams that stand out above the rest. Spain appears as one of the big favourites across the entire group stage, with a probability of winning their group of around 79.4%.

Brazil also looks very strong, with a 76.9% chance. Although Morocco could be a tricky opponent, the difference in odds makes it clear that Brazil is the favourite to top Group C.

England isn’t doing too badly either, with around a 74.6% chance of winning Group L. So it shouldn’t be too difficult for them to finish top of the group either.

Probability of winning each group at the 2026 World Cup

The group winner odds allow us to see which teams are starting with the most confidence ahead of the 2026 World Cup. To make it clearer, we’ve converted these odds into approximate percentages: the higher the percentage, the better the market rates that team’s chances of finishing top of their group.

Groups A and B

In Group A, Mexico start as favourites with 60.6%, although it’s not a completely one-sided group. South Korea and the Czech Republic appear fairly evenly matched and could be in contention for more than just qualification if they start the tournament strongly.

In Group B, Switzerland leads the odds with 59.9%, but Canada is much closer than it might seem, with 38.9%. It is one of those groups where the first match can change everything and where I wouldn’t dare to predict a very clear outcome.

Groups C and D

Group C has a clear favourite in Brazil. With 76.9%, they are one of the teams most likely to win their group in the entire World Cup. Morocco appears as the main alternative, although I see them as quite a long way off being able to cause them any trouble.

Group D, on the other hand, looks to be one of the most evenly matched. The United States has a 43.5% chance and Turkey a 40.8%, a very narrow margin. Paraguay could get in the mix if they manage to pick up some points early on – who knows.

Groups E and F

Germany is the clear favourite in Group E, with a 73.5% chance. Ecuador and Ivory Coast remain dangerous rivals, but based on the odds we’re fairly confident that Germany will top their group.

In Group F, the Netherlands lead with 58.1%, although Japan have an interesting percentage at 32.3%. Sweden could also make things difficult in the group, particularly in head-to-head matches. I see this group as wide open – anything could happen.

Groups G and H

Belgium leads Group G with 74.1%, well ahead of Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. I don’t think the Belgians will have too much trouble finishing top.

In Group H, Spain is the clear favourite across all groups, with 79.4%. Uruguay is the main threat, but the odds place La Roja clearly ahead and it would be a huge surprise to everyone if they didn’t finish top.

Groups I and J

France starts as the favourite in Group I with 69.4%, but watch out for Norway. Although they have a 31.7% chance, they could be a tough opponent if Haaland has a great game. Senegal could also be in the mix, but there is a significant gap in the odds compared to the favourites.

In Group J, Argentina has a 73.5% chance and we clearly see them ahead of Austria, Algeria and Jordan. The world champions look set to breeze through the group stage.

Groups K and L

Portugal leads Group K with 69%, but Colombia emerges as one of the strongest second favourites across all groups, with 36.4%. It doesn’t look like a tight group, though we certainly put Portugal first.

In Group L, England starts with 74.6%, another team with a comfortable lead. Croatia is the most dangerous rival, but we believe they will have little chance against England.

Group D, the most evenly matched according to the odds

One of the most interesting groups for betting is Group D, where there is no clear favourite. The United States is slightly ahead, with 43.5%, but Turkey is very close behind with 40.8%. These groups are particularly useful for making value bets, backing long-shot possibilities in case there are any surprises. In this sense, betting on Paraguay progressing from the group stage or Turkey winning their group is by no means far-fetched. This way, you can make a tidy profit if it comes to pass.

Germany, Argentina and Belgium, solid favourites

Germany, Argentina and Belgium find themselves in a fairly similar situation in their respective groups. All three have a probability of over 73% of finishing top.

The clearest favourites to win their group

If we rank them by probability, these are the teams with the best chance of finishing top:

As we mentioned, Spain is the team with the best chance of winning their group according to current odds. They are followed by Brazil, England, Belgium, Germany and Argentina, all with very high percentages in their respective groups.

Even so, in a World Cup with so many matches and more teams than ever before, there are many more factors to take into account. The schedule, squad rotations, goal difference and subsequent match-ups can have a huge impact on how each team approaches this group stage

What to bear in mind for betting? Clear favourites, but several open groups

According to the odds, Spain, Brazil, England, Belgium, Germany and Argentina are strong favourites to win their groups. However, there are also groups where the contest looks much more open, particularly Group D, Group B, Group F and Group K.

The 2026 World Cup will feature a longer group stage, more teams and more possible combinations. Therefore, although the odds help to understand who starts with an advantage, every result can significantly alter the picture.