Which Carabao Cup Fourth-Round Tie Is Most Likely to Produce an Upset?
Eight Carabao Cup fourth-round ties, three nights and one familiar question: where will the script break? Fleetwood hosting Arsenal supplies the romance, but the closest markets involve Premier League rivals. Our Carabao Cup Upset Index ranks every fixture using current outsider odds, not wishful thinking.
How Does the Carabao Cup Upset Index Work?
We take the bigger-priced team’s win odds in the 90-minute market, convert them into implied probability and rank the ties from most to least likely to favour the outsider. Home advantage and rotation also matter; no predicted line-up is treated as fact.
This does not predict which underdog reaches the quarter-finals. A draw after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties in round four, and a match-result bet does not cover the shoot-out.
All Eight Fourth-Round Ties Ranked by Upset Potential
| Rank | Tie: market outsider | Odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool v Chelsea: Chelsea | 13/8 | 38.1% |
| 2 | Bournemouth v Aston Villa: Villa | 21/10 | 32.3% |
| 3 | Everton v Newcastle: Newcastle | 21/10 | 32.3% |
| 4 | Sunderland v Brentford: Sunderland | 29/10 | 25.6% |
| 5 | Fulham v Crystal Palace: Palace | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| 6 | Man City v Brighton: Brighton | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 7 | Bradford v Peterborough: Peterborough | 15/4 | 21.1% |
| 8 | Fleetwood v Arsenal: Fleetwood | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Prices are indicative fractional 90-minute odds. Implied chances include the bookmaker margin; they are not independent forecasts.
Why Liverpool vs Chelsea Tops the List
Chelsea’s price makes them the most credible outsider in this particular market. That is no giant-killing; both sides play in the Premier League. It means the supposed underdog is almost as plausible as the favourite.
Xabi Alonso’s return to Anfield adds an irresistible subplot, but team selection matters more to the bet. Starting XIs may reveal whether 13/8 still represents fair value.
Bournemouth against Villa and Everton against Newcastle are similarly balanced. Home support gives Bournemouth and Everton an immediate advantage, though a rotated visiting side is only a possibility until confirmed.
Could Fleetwood Really Shock Arsenal?
Fleetwood’s first appearance in the fourth round followed a 1-0 victory over Championship Sheffield United. Their reward is the reigning Premier League champions at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood’s own wonderfully named ground.
Four Carabao Cup Odds Worth Comparing
The smarter angle may be choosing a market that suits the tie rather than simply backing every outsider. Here are four compact reference prices from the fourth-round slate.
Compare 90 minute results with ‘to qualify’ prices, then check line-ups before kick off. The latter market includes penalties and answers a different question.
When Are the Fourth Round Matches?
Bradford vs Peterborough and Fleetwood vs Arsenal take place on Tuesday 27 October. Five ties follow on Wednesday 28 October, with Everton vs Newcastle closing the round on Thursday 29 October. Every match is available through Sky Sports, with Liverpool-Chelsea also on ITV.
Who’s Going to Steal the Show? Our veredict
Liverpool and Chelsea have top billing, but imagine Fleetwood sending Arsenal packing. Now that would bring the house down! Eight ties, a few tempting outsiders and the delicious possibility of a cup night nobody saw coming.
So, who’s worth a little faith and a flutter? Check the line-ups, hunt down the best odds and pick your surprise act.
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