Why Folarin Balogun could launch unlikely Golden Boot challenge against Australia
The early Golden Boot conversation has been dominated by the usual suspects, but United States striker Folarin Balogun may be one of the tournament’s most intriguing outsiders
The opening round of World Cup fixtures has already produced several standout individual performances. Lionel Messi wasted little time reminding everyone why he remains a contender despite approaching the twilight of his career with a hat-trick against Algeria, while Kylian Mbappe strengthened his credentials as one of the favourites for the award with a brace against Senegal.
Germany’s Kai Havertz also entered the conversation after an impressive start to the tournament with two goals, as did Harry Kane in England’s 4-2 win over Croatia. Yet among the established names sits a much bigger-priced contender who may be flying under the radar.
Folarin Balogun is unlikely to feature near the top of most Golden Boot betting markets, but the United States forward has several factors working in his favour that could make him one of the tournament’s surprise goalscoring stories.
The former Arsenal striker is Mauricio Pochettino‘s undisputed first-choice No. 9 and he appears to be playing in a system designed to create a relentless stream of chances.
The evidence was there for all to see in the United States’ opening victory over Paraguay, where he netted a first-half brace as the USMNT opened the tournament with a statement 4-1 victory.
According to ESPN’s analysis, the Americans recorded a field tilt of 80.5 per cent, meaning they spent the vast majority of the match attacking in the final third. At the time, it was the fourth-highest figure recorded by any nation in its opening World Cup match since the tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1998.
Meanwhile, the co-hosts registered 54 touches inside the opposition penalty area against Paraguay. Only Germany, who accumulated 64 in their 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao, managed more during the opening round of fixtures.
Balogun benefits from a supporting cast that appears to be peaking at exactly the right time. Christian Pulisic has started the tournament in outstanding form, while Weston McKennie continues to provide energy, creativity and late runs into the box from midfield.
If the United States continue to dominate territory and possession in this manner, Balogun could find himself receiving more opportunities than several higher-profile forwards playing for traditional contenders, making him an interesting outsider in the Golden Boot race.
Back Balogun brace against Australia
The United States’ second group match against Australia could provide another ideal opportunity for Balogun to enhance his credentials.
The Americans are likely to control possession, push Australia deep into their own half and spend long periods camped around the penalty area, as they did against Turkey, who recorded over 70% of possession in their 2-0 loss to the Australian side.
For Balogun, that could translate into another busy evening inside the penalty box. The striker’s movement against Paraguay was excellent, constantly finding pockets of space between defenders and arriving in dangerous positions.
Given the volume of chances the United States are creating, it would not be surprising to see him add to his tally before the knockout stage begins.
Punters looking for value may be tempted by the 11/1 price on Balogun to score another brace, this time in the USMNT’s clash against Australia in Seattle on Friday.
