2026 Monaco Grand Prix: odds and picks 07.06.2026

The Monaco Grand Prix is once again one of the trickiest events on the calendar, not because of sheer speed, but because of the extreme precision demanded by every metre of the circuit. Monte Carlo is unforgiving of mistakes: a poor qualifying position, a slow pit stop or a brush with the wall can ruin the whole weekend. In a season marked by Mercedes’ strong start and Ferrari’s response, this GP comes at a particularly interesting time.

The key will lie in traction, driver confidence and the ability to warm the tyres on a flying lap. Ferrari has started the weekend feeling very positive, Mercedes arrives with the momentum of the championship, and McLaren is defending the memory of last year’s victory. The weather points to a dry race, but in Monaco any interruption completely changes the script.

Information: date, schedule and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo
• Race date: Sunday 7 June
• Qualifying: Saturday 6 June

Odds on the winner of the Monaco Grand Prix

Latest on the podium favourites

The three strongest contenders for the podium are Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli. Ferrari looks very comfortable in the slow sections of Monte Carlo, whilst Mercedes arrives with the most consistent car of the season. Norris is very close, but needs a flawless qualifying session.

Charles Leclerc: current situation and prospects

Leclerc arrives in Monaco with a mixture of pressure and opportunity. He has always shown exceptional pace at his home circuit, and the victory he secured here in 2024 lifted an emotional burden that had weighed heavily on him for years. This time, the circumstances are in his favour: Ferrari looks competitive in slow corners, the car inspires confidence in traction, and the layout reduces the importance of top speed, one of the areas where other teams usually make a difference.

His greatest asset lies in qualifying. In Monaco, starting from pole or on the front row completely changes the race, and Leclerc is one of the most explosive drivers over a single lap. He also arrives bolstered by Ferrari’s internal stability and by a weekend in which the team appears to have prepared the set-up very well. The risk, as always here, will lie in strategic management and in avoiding any small mistake under pressure.

Lewis Hamilton: current situation and prospects

Hamilton is one of the most reliable drivers Ferrari could have for a race like Monaco. His experience on street circuits, his race reading and his ability to conserve tyres make him a genuine podium contender, even if he isn’t the fastest over a single lap. Furthermore, he has shown an increasingly solid adaptation to the Ferrari environment, which is key on a circuit where confidence in the car makes all the difference.

In Monte Carlo, Hamilton doesn’t need to dominate the entire weekend to be a threat. All he needs is to secure a top-four grid position and wait for a strategic window, a safety car or a mistake by another driver. His strength lies in his management: he rarely rushes into things, understanding when to attack and when to defend his position. If Ferrari confirms the good balance shown at the start of the weekend, Hamilton has enough in his favour to fight for the podium and even for victory.

Kimi Antonelli: current situation and prospects

Antonelli arrives as championship leader and brimming with confidence following an outstanding start to the season. Mercedes has been the strongest team overall, with an effective, reliable and very well-rounded car. However, Monaco is not the ideal circuit to demonstrate mechanical superiority: here, power carries less weight, overtaking is almost impossible and qualifying exposes any lack of experience.

That is precisely the big question mark surrounding Antonelli. His pace is beyond doubt, but Monte Carlo demands a particular maturity: knowing how to get close to the wall without touching it, building the lap bit by bit and not overdoing it when the car starts to slide. If he secures a good starting position, his race pace should be enough to secure a podium finish. If he qualifies behind the Ferraris or Norris, he will find it very difficult to make up ground. He is a strong contender, but less of a certainty than on other circuits.

Track conditions and weather forecast

The Monaco Circuit is the most unique track in the championship: 3.337 kilometres, 19 corners, narrow streets, walls very close by and barely any margin for error. The Fairmont hairpin, the climb to the Casino, the tunnel entrance and the harbour chicane all require a high level of downforce and suspension capable of absorbing bumps, kerbs and changes in track surface. The average speed is low, but the mental demands are extremely high.

The only clear DRS zone is on the main straight, although overtaking remains extremely difficult unless there is a significant tyre difference or a mistake by the car in front. Tyre degradation is not usually extreme, but graining can occur if the temperature drops or if the car is pushed too hard in dirty air.

The forecast points to a dry race, with mild temperatures of around 23 degrees at the start. This favours a relatively controlled strategy, although a safety car could completely disrupt the pit stops.

Comparison of leading teams

Ferrari appears to be heading to Monaco for one of its best weekends of the year. The car suits slow corners, tight turns and sections where traction matters more than aerodynamic efficiency on the straights. With Leclerc and Hamilton, moreover, it has a very strong pairing for a circuit where precision counts for more than aggression.

Mercedes, for its part, remains the overall benchmark of the season. Antonelli and Russell have shown pace, consistency and above-average reliability, but Monte Carlo could neutralise some of that advantage. If they don’t get at least one car on the front row, their Sunday will depend too heavily on strategy.

McLaren arrive looking less impressive than last year, but they cannot be ruled out. Norris won here in 2025 and Piastri also tends to perform well on technical circuits. The problem lies in consistency: they need a clean qualifying session and must avoid pit lane errors to get fully into the fight.

Latest results at the Monaco Grand Prix

Monaco usually rewards the driver who dominates qualifying and keeps a cool head on Sunday. In 2025, Lando Norris won with McLaren after controlling the race ahead of Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri, in a race where track position was once again decisive. A year earlier, Leclerc finally secured victory on home soil with Ferrari, breaking a run of personal frustrations at Monte Carlo.

Red Bull has also enjoyed a very strong record in recent years, with victories for Verstappen and Pérez, although their current form does not appear as dominant as in previous seasons. Mercedes has a strong tradition at this circuit, but in recent times it has not always found the perfect balance here.

Historically, McLaren and Ferrari are two of the most influential teams in Monaco. This is no coincidence: both have built part of their legend on this stage, where technical prowess, strategy and driver talent hold particular value.

Summary of the key factors for this GP