Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun (Champions League 2026): Odds & Prediction

The 1-1 draw at the Stockhorn Arena left a tie completely wide open that nobody expected. Thun took the lead in the 20th minute with a goal from Brighton Labeau and held on until the 86th, when Miha Zajc capitalized on a cross from Topić to equalize and give Dinamo a result that, on paper, was the bare minimum for a team with their European ambitions. But the fact that the Swiss champions left for home with a draw after leading for more than an hour says a lot about what could happen on Tuesday in Zagreb.

Because Thun isn’t a team that has made it this far by accident. Swiss champions in their first season back in the top flight, featuring the Super League’s top scorer in their ranks and a squad that no one in Switzerland was able to stop. The problem is that Maksimir is a whole different world. Dinamo haven’t lost at home in over a year, and their record in Champions League qualifiers at their home stadium is enough to strike fear into any visiting team. The Croatian crowd will be pushing from the very first minute with the tie hanging in the balance, a factor Thun hasn’t had to manage all season long.

Absences will be key. Fabio Fehr, Thun’s best player in the first leg, picked up a yellow card that rules him out of the return leg alongside Bürki and Roth. That’s three starters missing for a team already playing at the limit of its capabilities against an opponent of this caliber. Dinamo, on the other hand, only lose Zajc—the goalscorer—who is also suspended.

The Croatian side knows they have to win. A draw after ninety minutes sends them into extra time, and from there, anything can happen. Kovacevic cannot afford to play for a result, which means coming out on the attack from the opening whistle—a strategy that could leave open spaces Thun knows how to exploit on the counter.

With home advantage, Thun’s missing players, and Dinamo Zagreb’s need to press for a result to avoid putting it all on the line in extra time, the Croatians have too many arguments in their favor not to take a win that secures their place in the next round.