England vs Croatia Prediction (UEFA Nations League) Odds and Bets 12.11.2026

England have responded impressively to their opening 3-2 defeat against Spain. Tuchel’s side won 2-0 away to Czechia before producing an extraordinary 7-0 victory against Croatia in Rijeka. They followed that performance with a comfortable 3-0 home win against Czechia, extending their winning streak to three matches. England have now scored 14 goals in four Nations League fixtures, conceding only three. Their attacking options remain strong, with Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon and Morgan Rogers among those selected for November.

Kane could also make his 126th senior England appearance, taking him beyond Peter Shilton’s men’s national-team record. The Three Lions have looked particularly effective when pressing high and winning possession in dangerous areas. Their three consecutive clean sheets also provide encouragement ahead of another meeting with Croatia.

Croatia began their Nations League campaign with a 2-1 victory away to Czechia. However, Slaven Bilić’s side have since suffered three consecutive defeats. A 4-1 loss against Spain was followed by the 7-0 home defeat to England, before Croatia lost 2-1 to Spain in Split. Those results leave them third in Group A3 with three points.

Croatia have conceded 14 goals in four matches, including 13 across their last three defeats. Their preparations for Wembley have also been disrupted by injuries. Andrej Kramarić, Marin Pongračić and Franjo Ivanović are unavailable, while Josip Šutalo has withdrawn from the squad. Niko Galešić has been called up as his replacement. Luka Modrić remains the experienced figure in midfield, supported by Mateo Kovačić and Martin Baturina. However, Croatia will need a considerably stronger defensive performance to avoid another defeat against England.

Cole Palmer and Phil Foden have not been selected, although their omissions should not automatically be treated as injury absences. England’s attacking depth remains impressive despite those changes, with Gordon, Rogers and Bellingham providing different options behind Kane.

1. England’s Recent Defensive Record: Three consecutive Nations League victories without conceding provide a strong argument for backing another home win. Tuchel’s side have also scored 12 goals during that sequence.
2. Croatia’s Defensive Problems: Bilić’s team have conceded 14 goals in four group matches, including seven against England. Their defensive absences complicate preparations further.
3. Wembley Advantage: England have beaten Czechia 3-0 at home in this competition. Their pressing and attacking movement could make life difficult for Croatia.
4. Kane and England’s Attacking Depth: Kane scored twice in Rijeka, while Bellingham, Gordon and Rogers also contributed. England have several players capable of creating and finishing opportunities.
5. Qualification Implications: England need only a point to secure their quarter-final place. Croatia still have work to do in the group, making the opening stages potentially important for both sides.

England’s recent numbers are particularly relevant to the match-result market. Tuchel’s side have scored 12 goals across their last three fixtures and kept a clean sheet in each. Croatia have moved in the opposite direction, losing three consecutive games while conceding 13 goals. The visitors’ attacking record is also relatively modest, with just four goals from four group matches.

However, three of Croatia’s four games have featured goals from both teams, so their recent defensive struggles shouldn’t automatically be interpreted as evidence that they cannot score at Wembley. That distinction matters when comparing the straightforward England win with the more demanding win-to-nil market.

Over 2.5 Goals at 49/100 is supported by the attacking numbers. Three of England’s four Nations League games and all four Croatian fixtures have produced at least three goals. Both Teams to Score – No at 41/50 is another possibility, particularly with England keeping three consecutive clean sheets. However, England to Win to Nil at 21/20 is my preferred higher-risk alternative.