Italy vs France (UEFA Nations League) Odds and Bets 12.11.2026
France travel to Milan on Thursday 12 November, looking to protect their unbeaten UEFA Nations League record. Our Italy vs France prediction is France to Win at 3/4, with Zinédine Zidane’s side having conceded just twice in four matches.
Italy have improved significantly since losing to Belgium, scoring eight goals across their last three fixtures. October’s 1-1 draw in Paris showed they can trouble the group leaders, but France’s defensive consistency and Kylian Mbappé’s return give the visitors the edge.
Italy vs France: Match Preview
France lead League A Group 1 with ten points, three ahead of Italy, as both teams approach the final two group fixtures.
| Match information | Details |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Nations League 2026/27 |
| Date | Thursday, 12 November 2026 |
| Kick-off | 7:45pm GMT |
| Venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan |
| Group | League A, Group 1 |
| Matchday | 5 of 6 |
Italy remain in the race for a quarter-final place, with Belgium just one point behind them. France are in a stronger position after three victories and a draw. Another positive result would strengthen their grip on the group ahead of Sunday’s meeting with Türkiye.
Recent Form and Key Results
France have been more reliable defensively, while Italy have improved considerably in attack.
| UEFA Nations League statistics | Italy | France |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 4 | 4 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Defeats | 1 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 8 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 5 | 2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Points | 7 | 10 |
Italy recovered from their opening 2-0 defeat against Belgium by beating Türkiye 4-1, drawing 1-1 with France and winning the return fixture against Türkiye 3-1. France have been unbeaten throughout, defeating Türkiye and Belgium 1-0 away from home before drawing with Italy and beating Belgium 4-1. The visitors have conceded just twice in four matches, compared with Italy’s five. Recent head-to-head results have been mixed. France won 3-1 in Milan in November 2024, Italy secured a 3-1 victory in Paris earlier that year, and October’s meeting finished level.
Team News and the Main Uncertainty
Italy will be without Gianluca Mancini, who withdrew from Roberto Mancini’s squad through injury. Federico Gatti has been called up as an additional defensive option, while young Udinese defender Matteo Palma has received his first senior invitation. Italy still have experienced midfield options in Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali, with Francesco Pio Esposito and Gianluca Scamacca offering different attacking qualities. France welcome back Mbappé, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Marcus Thuram.
Ousmane Dembélé, Jules Koundé and Maghnes Akliouche are unavailable, but Zidane can still call upon Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola and Désiré Doué. Neither starting XI has been confirmed, so the balance of France’s attack and Italy’s reshuffled defence will be worth monitoring.
Tactical Analysis: Can Italy Break Down France?
Italy’s attacking improvement has been encouraging, particularly in their two victories against Türkiye. However, facing France presents a different challenge. Zidane’s side have conceded only two Nations League goals and won both previous away fixtures without allowing their opponents to score. Their defensive organisation makes it difficult for opponents to create sustained pressure, while Mbappé’s return adds pace and finishing quality in transition.
Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in all four group matches. That could become costly if they push forward in search of a victory. France have also demonstrated that they can win without dominating the scoreboard, recording narrow victories over Türkiye and Belgium. I expect Italy to make this competitive, but France’s defensive consistency and greater attacking depth make the away win my preferred selection.
Italy vs France: 1X2 Betting Odds
France are favourites for Thursday’s Nations League encounter, although Italy’s recent performances suggest a competitive match.
France to Win at 3/4 is my conservative selection. The visitors have collected ten points from four matches, conceded just twice and already secured two away victories in the group. Italy’s attacking improvement deserves respect, but their defensive record makes France the more convincing match-winner choice.
Italy vs France: Alternative Betting Odds
A more demanding bet builder has also been quoted for this fixture.
| Betting market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Italy to Win + Italy to Win the First Half + Over 3.5 Goals | 12/1 |
Italy vs France Predictions
France to Win
Three wins, two clean sheets and Mbappé back in the squad. France have been much more reliable defensively, and that's enough for me. I'm backing the visitors to get the job done in Milan.
Draw
Italy held France in Paris, and I reckon they'll make life difficult again at San Siro. The French have been winning tight matches, but this one could finish level. I'm taking the draw!
Other predictions
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