Bosnia vs Italy (Play off World Cup): odds and picks 31.03.2026

I reckon this will be a much tougher match than Italy’s name suggests. It’s a play-off final for a place at the 2026 World Cup, taking place on Tuesday 31 March in Zenica, and Bosnia are in high spirits after knocking out Wales on penalties. Italy, however, have taken some of the pressure off themselves with a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland and are also the favourites in the odds.

To me, this tie seems heavily influenced by the context: Bosnia has the home ground, the atmosphere and a Dzeko who remains decisive on big nights; Italy has greater collective quality, more depth and better fluidity when they manage to settle in the opposition’s half. The key, in my opinion, will be whether Bosnia can drag the match into a long, physical and emotional contest, because the more disjointed the game becomes, the more value I see in Italy’s talent.

Bosnia

Bosnia arrive in high spirits. In Cardiff, they held their own in a gruelling match against Wales, drawing 1-1 after 120 minutes and eventually progressing on penalties, with Dzeko leading the line and Kerim Alajbegović scoring the decisive spot-kick. It was no fluke: the team withstood more opposition possession, accepted a rough game and still managed five shots on target to Wales’ three, as well as a fairly balanced xG given how the match unfolded. That ability to endure without losing focus is precisely what gives them a real chance in Zenica.

In the qualifying phase, Bosnia finished second in their group with 17 points and a 17-7 goal difference, behind only Austria, so we’re not talking about a makeshift side. Furthermore, they arrive with interesting players around Dzeko: Demirović to exploit spaces, the improving Alajbegović, and players like Memić or Tahirović capable of adding a bit more flair to the transitions. A familiar starting eleven is expected, with Vasilj; Dedić, Katić, Muharemović, Kolašinac; Memić, Hadžiahmetović, Bajraktarević, Alajbegović; Džeko and Demirović.

Their strength, in my view, is crystal clear: experience up front and competitive conviction. Dzeko has scored six goals in this qualifying campaign and remains the player they turn to when the game gets messy; Tabaković has contributed two in just three matches, and Bosnia does not rely solely on attacking well, as they also know how to cope with periods without the ball. The less reliable aspect lies behind that resilience: when the opposition moves the ball quickly from side to side, Bosnia struggles more to defend against width and crosses from the flanks, and that’s where Italy have Dimarco, Politano and several midfielders with the passing ability to punish them.

Italy

Italy arrive under more pressure than anyone else, but also with stronger footballing credentials. They beat Northern Ireland 2-0 in the play-off semi-final and, although the first half was tense, they were much more at ease in the second. Tonali scored and provided an assist, Kean found the net again, and the match statistics reflect a fairly clear superiority: 19 shots, 8 on target and 1.59 xG, compared to the opponent’s 8 shots and 0.47 xG. To me, that second half does seem like a serious sign of competitive growth.

What’s more, the recent trend is positive. Italy have won seven of their last eight competitive matches, and Kean is in fine form: he has scored in five consecutive appearances for the national team, netting seven goals during that run. Tonali is also having a much bigger impact than usual, whilst Dimarco remains a very useful creative force from the wing. The expected starting XI features Donnarumma; Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Politano, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Kean and Pio Esposito.

As for absentees, Federico Chiesa has been dropped from the squad due to fitness issues and Scamacca is listed as injured, so Italy lose two key attacking players, although the feeling is that the team has compensated for this absence with Kean’s form and the influence of the midfielders. For me, Italy’s biggest risk is not so much tactical as mental: if Bosnia manage to level the match and take it to a tight finish, the ghosts could resurface. But if Italy strike first, I see great value in their quality to control the game.