France v Spain – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (14 July 2026)

France versus Spain looks like the kind of semi-final where control could matter more than territory. France carry the greater threat in open space, but Spain are usually the better side when the game becomes tactical and possession-heavy. I expect a tight contest, with both teams capable of creating chances without either dominating for long spells.

The biggest danger for Spain is allowing the match to become stretched. Mbappé and Dembélé are at their best when they can attack retreating defenders, so Spain will need to manage the ball carefully and avoid cheap turnovers. Their ability to slow the game down, recycle possession and force France into a deeper shape could prove decisive.

That approach should bring Lamine Yamal into the game more often. Spain regularly use him as their main outlet on the right, and France can leave space around the full-back when they push forward. Yamal does not need many openings to make an impact, whether by driving inside, slipping a pass into the box or finishing a chance himself.

My selection is Lamine Yamal to score or provide an assist at any time, priced at 2.20. I like the flexibility of the market because it covers both his creativity and his goal threat. If Spain do find the net, there is a strong chance he will be directly involved in the move.