Japan v Sweden – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (26/06/2026)

Group F is proving to be one of the most entertaining at the World Cup. All its matches have produced goals, chances and several heavy wins, meaning the group remains wide open heading into the final matchday, with the exception of Tunisia, who are already guaranteed to finish bottom of the group.

The Netherlands, Japan and Sweden are all vying for their final position in the group. Let’s take a look at this intriguing Japan v Sweden clash, which will be played in Dallas.

Japan have already qualified, but are still fighting for their position

Japan go into this matchday in second place in the group with 4 points. The Samurai Blue drew 2–2 with the Netherlands and then thrashed Tunisia 0–4, results that have already secured their place in the next round.

What remains to be decided is their final position. It seems unlikely they will finish top of the group, as all signs point to a comfortable victory for the Netherlands against a Tunisia side that has performed very poorly throughout the tournament, to the extent that they sacked their manager following the defeat to Sweden.

A single point would be enough to secure second place, which, realistically speaking, seems the most likely outcome. However, an unexpected slip-up by the Dutch or a narrower-than-expected victory would open the door to finishing top of the group.

For that reason, I don’t expect the Japanese side to take a complacent approach. Top spot could make the knockout stages much easier, and that should spur them on to go for the win.

Sweden have all but secured their place in the next round

Sweden go into this final matchday with 3 points and, thanks to their thrashing of Tunisia, are currently the best third-placed side in the tournament.

All the signs suggest that even a defeat might be enough for them to reach the round of 16. Precisely for that reason, the odds on a draw have not plummeted, as the market interprets that the Swedes have no need to play for a draw and will go out to compete for the win.

If there’s one thing this team has made clear during the World Cup, it’s their ability to create danger. They have also shown certain defensive weaknesses, a combination that usually results in very open matches.

Japan v Sweden Prediction

There do not seem to be many reasons to believe that this match will break the pattern we have seen so far in Group F. Everything points to another game full of chances, high tempo and dangerous moments at both ends.

Sweden boast a world-class attacking duo in Isak and Gyökeres, two strikers capable of causing problems for any defence. It’s hard to imagine Japan not facing defensive difficulties in this clash.

But the Asian side have also shown their attacking prowess, scoring two goals against the Netherlands and four against Tunisia. At this World Cup, the Japanese are confirming the evolution of their football, which has been developing for years and is now competing on equal terms with many mid-tier European sides.

For all these reasons, I see two teams with more attacking than defensive strengths, keen to secure a better position in the group and with enough firepower to cause each other real problems. In my view, the value clearly lies in the over/under goals market.