Manchester City vs Liverpool (FA Cup): odds and bets 04.04.2026

This isn’t your typical City-Liverpool league fixture that can be judged solely by the line-up. We’re talking about an FA Cup quarter-final clash on Saturday 4 April at the Etihad, and I believe the context is crucial.

City arrive in strong form after lifting the Carabao Cup against Arsenal and having already beaten Liverpool twice this season, 3-0 in November and 2-1 at Anfield in February. Liverpool, by contrast, arrive in a more fragile state: they lost 2-1 to Brighton, have dropped points in the league and are hampered by significant injuries to several key players.

I reckon this will be a less romantic and more pragmatic match than this fixture usually suggests. City are more settled, more confident and displaying a much more recognisable competitive edge. Liverpool, mind you, still have talent in spades to capitalise on any dip in form from their opponents, especially if Salah returns. But today I see more weight in the momentum of Guardiola’s side than in the visitors’ reputation.

Manchester City

City’s form seems clearly superior to me. They won the Carabao Cup a few days ago with a 2-0 victory over Arsenal and gave the impression of a top-class side that, when it smells a title, knows how to strike right where it hurts most. It wasn’t a brilliant final in terms of sustained attacking pressure, but it was very serious in terms of maturity, emotional control and striking at exactly the right moment. And that, in knockout ties like this, is worth a great deal.

Furthermore, there is one detail that carries a lot of weight for me: they have already beaten Liverpool twice this season. At the Etihad, they ran rings around them with a 3-0 win in November, and at Anfield they came from behind to win 2-1 in February with a goal from Haaland.

That doesn’t mean the script will be repeated, but it does paint a fairly clear picture of recent superiority. When a team beats you twice in the same season, we’re no longer talking about a one-off fluke.

I also like the confidence Guardiola is bringing into this match. His City side may not have had as dominant a season as in previous years, but they still give off that impression of a unit capable of rising to the occasion in big games. And playing at home, with the odds making them favourites at around 4/5 or -124, it seems logical to me that they should start as favourites.

Liverpool

Liverpool arrive with more doubts. The 2-1 defeat to Brighton hurt because it confirmed a worrying trend: they had picked up just one point from their three most recent league matches, and the coaching staff themselves have acknowledged that the team are dropping too many points. I’m not just concerned about the result, but the sense of vulnerability it left behind, especially at a time when the fixture list is extremely tight.

The big news for the Reds is that Salah looks set to return. If he’s available, even if he’s not 100 per cent fit, the match changes significantly because he remains the player best capable of turning a half-chance into a real threat.

But it’s not all good news. Alisson remains a major doubt, and the team has reached this stage with a build-up of injuries and fatigue that has hampered their consistency. All of this means Liverpool still have a very high ceiling, but right now they seem less reliable than their opponents.