Uzbekistan v Colombia – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (18 June 2026)

Colombia arrive at the Azteca as well-deserved favourites. Third in the South American qualifiers, behind only Argentina and Ecuador, with James Rodríguez leading the CONMEBOL assists table and Luis Díaz fresh from a sensational season at Bayern. On paper, it’s a no-brainer.

But of course, if it were that simple, there would be no betting.

James’s actual condition is the big unknown in this match. Lorenzo has included him, protected him, and designed a specific training programme for the tournament, but he hasn’t played regularly for months. A hospital stay in March, two matches with Minnesota United before the World Cup. He might be in good shape, he might not. And when James isn’t at 100 per cent, Colombia is a rather different team, more reliant on Díaz’s individual talent than on the collective fluidity that characterises this side on its best nights.

On the other side is Uzbekistan, making their historic World Cup debut, with Cannavaro on the bench. And here is something worth noting: the Italian manager hasn’t come here to make a fool of himself. He has spent years building organised, compact teams that are very difficult to beat. The Azteca is over 2,200 metres above sea level, and a World Cup debut generates an adrenaline rush that could see the Uzbeks hold out far longer than anyone expects. The Colombians have faced insurmountable barriers in qualifying before, with matches stalling against theoretically inferior opponents, and there is no reason to think tonight will be any different from the very first minute.

Everything points to Colombia taking all three points, but the manner in which they do so matters just as much as the result. A low-scoring match, with Uzbekistan defending as a unit and Colombia looking for openings, seems the most likely scenario.