Palmeiras vs LDU Quito (Copa Libertadores): odds and picks 31.10.2025

The series stands at 0–3 after the blow in Quito: a brace from Gabriel Villamil and a penalty from Lisandro Alzugaray in a first leg marked by LDU’s intensity and an unrecognisable Palmeiras (their first defeat of the tournament, and three goals conceded in 45 minutes).

This forces Verdão to stage a major comeback at Allianz Parque: they need three goals to force penalties and four to go through directly and reach the final.

The second leg will be played in São Paulo on Thursday night (early morning of the 31st in Europe); a full stadium, fast turf and a Palmeiras side that will push from the first minute. LDU arrives with managing their lead as plan A, without Bryan Ramírez (sent off in the first leg), but with confidence at an all-time high after one of the performances of the year.

On the Brazilian side, keep an eye on the goal: Weverton has been ruled out for this tie, which would mean continuing with the substitute between the sticks. At LDU, the goal is in good hands: Alexander Domínguez has been stopping everything he needs to stop and then some.

I expect a fierce start from Verdão, with Raphael Veiga and Vitor Roque looking for short passes on the edge of the area and lots of second plays after crosses. The first goal is the emotional key: if Palmeiras scores early, we will have a volcanic match; if LDU holds out for 25-30 minutes, anxiety could work against the home side.

Tiago Nunes’ game plan will be pragmatic: a low-to-medium block, transitions with Alzugaray/Villamil and a pause when needed to cool things down. LDU is very dangerous from set pieces, and Palmeiras suffers when it has too many men ahead of the ball (as we saw in Quito).

Key signs:

• Overall score 0–3: the script pushes Palmeiras towards open games, but LDU has already shown that it punishes spaces and manages advantages.
• Low/situation in the Verdão goal and Domínguez at the peak of confidence: a differential if the match enters siege mode.
• Mood: LDU arrives with the message “important result, not decisive” —in other words, keep a cool head for 90 minutes.

My predictions

BeniThe conservative one

LDU qualifies. Odds 1.36

With a 0–3 lead, a well-organised defence and a great goalkeeper in big games, the most likely scenario is that LDU will get the job done, even if they lose by the smallest of margins. It’s not easy to come back from 0-3, even when playing at home. And even more so in a Libertadores semi-final.

BetoThe bold one

Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.65

With the obligation to attack from the first minute and playing at home, Verdao has no choice but to go all out and attack. LDU can take advantage of that local need and kill the game on the counterattack, as there will be spaces.

I expect a first half with a home goal and territorial dominance; a second half of suffering for the Ecuadorians, where they may be able to catch some counter-attacks, with chances for Palmeiras as well, and a final stretch with LDU slowing down the pace whenever they can when the score is closer.