PSG vs Bayern (Champions League): odds and picks 04.11.2025

Champions League clash (group stage, Matchday 4) on Tuesday 4 November 2025, at the Parc des Princes.

I have two objective key points: both teams are on a roll in Europe (3/3 wins in the group stage, with PSG and Bayern occupying the top two spots) and Bayern are in tremendous form (15 consecutive wins after beating Leverkusen 3-0 on 1/11).

In recent head-to-head matches, the balance has tipped in favour of the Bavarians (decisive victories in 2023 and 2024), although PSG has been improving significantly in recent tournaments.

Another important factor is specific absences. At PSG, Désiré Doué is out with a muscle injury and will miss this match; at Bayern, the list of absentees has been extensive in October (Gnabry, Guerreiro, Davies, Ito, some of whom are still recovering).

In addition, the confirmed referee is Maurizio Mariani (Italy), a UEFA official who tends to allow the game to flow without losing control.

PSG

PSG are unbeaten in the group stage and have a demanding schedule, but they perform well in big games. Doué’s absence reduces the imbalance between the lines, so I expect a more orthodox starting eleven with Donnarumma in goal, a back four with Hakimi and Marquinhos as reference points, and a mobile front with Dembélé as the focus of the one-on-one.

The Parc factor weighs heavily: Luis Enrique’s team tends to press high and look to recover quickly to attack the side-centre gap. If they are ahead, they tend to control the ball and punish their opponents’ losses with short transitions.

Key points to consider:

• Take advantage of offensive set pieces (tight crosses to the near post).
• Protecting the right-back’s back against Bavarian breaks.
• Be effective in the first 20 minutes, when PSG usually strike at home.

Bayern

Bayern arrive on a tremendous run of form: their 3-0 win over Leverkusen extended their winning streak and reinforced Kompany’s idea: coordinated pressure, verticality after winning the ball back and a lot of threat from inside passes. Although they have had some injuries (Gnabry, Guerreiro, Davies, Ito), the team continues to compete at a high level thanks to the depth of their squad.

In attack, I expect three patterns:

• a) quick transitions behind PSG’s full-back;
• b) second-line runs to the penalty spot;
• c) low crosses into the six-yard box.

If they take the lead, they tend to close down exchanges and manage the tempo with precision.

Referee: Maurizio Mariani (Italy)

Appointment confirmed by UEFA. He is a referee with consistent criteria who allows intensity with control. In terms of cards, it is best to wait for the final line-ups and starting elevens, as he is not extreme in his approach: neither too permissive nor overly card-happy.

My predictions for PSG vs Bayern

BeniThe conservative one

Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.36

Both teams come into the game with three Champions League wins and very high offensive volumes. Bayern arrive in Paris on the back of a 3-0 win and 15 consecutive victories, while PSG, at home, tend to push hard in the first third. The history between the two teams also points to open scores. It is the most statistically stable option without having to choose a winner.

BetoThe bold one

Bayern to win (1X2 – 2). Odds 2.60.

Bayern are in better form and their away form punishes their opponents’ mistakes very well. In addition, PSG are without Doué, a key player between the lines. If you are looking for protection, Bayern DNB (draw no bet) is around 1.95–2.05. Compatible scores: 1-2 or 2-3.