Rayo Vallecano vs Lech Poznań (Conference League): odds and picks 06.11.2025

UEFA Europa Conference League match (group stage, Matchday 4) on Thursday, 6 November 2025, at the Estadio de Vallecas. The fixture confirms the date, time and venue, with Rayo better positioned in the group table (7th) than Lech (14th).

This is the first official meeting between the two sides in recent times, and home advantage will be a factor: Vallecas is a tough place to play, and the Madrid-based team is competing well in Europe.

Key context: Rayo comes in with good results at home and a recent European victory (2–0 against Shkëndija in October); Lech is on a combative domestic streak (draws with Legia 0–0 and Pogoń 2–2, plus 2–1 in the Cup), but has struggled at times away from home. The market and models point to moderate local favouritism.

Rayo Vallecano

I like how Rayo are coming into this game: in the previous stretch, they strung together three league wins in four (1–0 against Real Sociedad, 3–0 at Levante, 1–0 against Alavés), conceding only one goal in those three victories. In Europe, they made their debut in Vallecas with a 2–0 win in the league phase, consolidating their form.

In terms of availability, full-back Pep Chavarría (suspended) and centre-backs Abdul Mumin and Luiz Felipe (injured) are out, affecting rotations in the defensive line.

Tactically, I expect coordinated pressure, tense crosses to the near post and a lot of second plays in the opponent’s half.

Overall performance data for 25/26 points to Rayo with an xG of ~1.43 and average possession of ~53%, which increases its number of shots at home (≈15 per game) although it converts at a cautious rate. If it scores first, it tends to slow down and control the game through possession. Key points I value:

• Minimise fouls in front of goal.
• Protect the far post during transitions.
• Sustain ABP (set pieces) where the centre-backs contribute.

Lech Poznań

The Polish side arrives in competitive form: 2–1 in the Cup on 30/10, 0–0 at Legia and 2–2 against Pogoń in the league. In the Conference, they have alternated good starts with prolonged periods of retreat; away from home, they struggle when defending repeated crosses and second plays.

Absentees to consider: Ali Gholizadeh, Daniel Håkans, Patrik Wålemark and Radosław Murawski. In recent weeks, there has also been a disciplinary issue with Luis Palma’s red card in Ekstraklasa, a sign that the team can become disorganised in high-pressure situations.

Expected plan: mid-low block, quick breaks down the wings and attacks on the home side’s full-backs. If Lech scores first, they may slow the game down; if they fall behind, they will open up and concede space, which favours a Rayo side that pushes forward in Vallecas.

Detail: on the international market, the odds for a Rayo win are around 1.45–1.55, reflecting that subtle but clear difference.

My predictions for Rayo Vallecano vs Lech Poznań

BeniThe conservative one

Rayo Vallecano wins (1X2 – 1). Odds 1.55.

Better position in the phase (7th vs 14th), the Vallecas factor, and a Lech side that arrives with significant absences. Rayo has already shown European reliability at home (2–0 in their debut) and their tendency, when they take the lead, is to manage the game. If it drops below 1.45, I would reduce the stake; around 1.50 seems like an interesting pick to me.

BetoThe bold one

Rayo wins & Under 3.5 goals. Odds 2.90.

Local dominance with a low score: Lech tends to close up shop and, if they fall behind, they take a while to get disorganised; Rayo, with injuries in defence, will not expose themselves excessively if they are in the lead. Compatible scores: 1–0 / 2–0 / 2–1. Similar alternative: Rayo -1.0 Asian handicap (void if they win by 1) around 2.00 if the market opens.