Turkey v United States – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (26 June 2026)

A meaningless fixture to round off Group D of the 2026 World Cup. The United States are mathematically top of the group thanks to convincing victories over Paraguay (4–1) and Australia (2–0), whilst Turkey have already been eliminated after picking up 0 points from a possible 6, having lost their opening match 2–0 to the Australians and 1–0 to the Paraguayans. This is something of a surprise, as although the Turkish side had to go through the play-offs to qualify for this tournament, they have enough talented players to have achieved more. Will they be able to compete for pride in their farewell match?

The truth is that so far, to the surprise of many, Mauricio Pochettino’s side has been one of the teams playing the best football at this World Cup. The tactical discipline imposed by the Argentine manager is working and bringing out the best in players such as Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi. These are two perhaps little-known strikers, aged 23 and 24, who, although they have had good seasons at Monaco and PSV, were not expected by anyone to perform at such a high level this summer. But it’s not just the forwards who are standing out: Alexander Freeman scored the second goal on matchday two, despite having made just three starts in LaLiga for Villarreal. With the tie all but won, it’s likely that on Thursday we’ll see players who have barely featured so far: Giovanni Reyna, Tim Weah, and we’ll see if an injured Pulisic can return. In any case, based on what we’ve seen so far, they are favourites.

Opposite them, the atmosphere is very tense. Vincenzo Montella will not continue as manager of the Turkish national team. It has been a resounding failure following defeats to two opponents who were expected to be beatable. But a lack of cutting edge up front, organisational errors at key moments and the poor form of their star players have sealed their fate. It’s hard to imagine that, with such a huge disappointment and a manager on his way out, they can put up a creditable fight at the SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

Therefore, we’re backing a win for the hosts, who are on a roll. People in the USA are getting hooked on football thanks to the joy Poche’s lads are bringing. It’s been 96 years since they last managed two consecutive wins at a World Cup – that was back in 1930 – and now they’re aiming for a clean sweep to make it through to the round of 16 in style. If they can just repeat what we’ve seen so far, they’ll pull it off, and the odds suggest they will. We’re going for 2.