USA v Portugal (International Friendly): odds and bets 31.03.2026

This friendly seems to me to be a far trickier affair for the United States than it would have appeared a few days ago. It takes place on Tuesday 31 March in Atlanta (in the early hours of 1 April in the UK) and comes with very different moods on each side: Pochettino’s side are coming off a very tough 5-2 defeat against Belgium, whilst Portugal arrive following a 0-0 draw against Mexico at the Azteca, with less flair on the scoreboard but plenty of control in their play. Furthermore, it is one of the last serious tests before the World Cup for both sides.

I’m not buying into any exaggerated favouritism for the home side here, far from it. The United States will have home advantage and the atmosphere, yes, but they arrive with their confidence dented and very visible defensive doubts. Portugal, on the other hand, continue to show more composure, better structure on the ball and a style of play that tends to cause a lot of problems when the opposition are wounded and need to react quickly. For me, it’s a match where the pace could decide almost everything.

USA

The first thing that strikes me when looking at the United States is a sense of urgency. The 5-2 defeat to Belgium was a serious blow, not just because of the result, but because of the manner of it. It was a defeat that leaves its mark, particularly because it highlighted significant problems at the back and a lack of control at key moments of the match. That sort of blow can serve as a catalyst for a reaction… or it can leave the team somewhat shaken if they suffer again.

Furthermore, that match exposed a problem that, for me, carries significant weight in this tie: fragility when the opposition speeds up the game. Belgium turned isolated errors into a very difficult night for the defence and for Turner, and that is even more worrying given the absences the team was already carrying. If Portugal manage to settle in the opposition’s half and move the ball with clarity, the United States could struggle again.

Even so, I’m by no means ruling them out. This side has pace, speed and players capable of creating danger in any transition, starting with Pulisic and including McKennie, Reyna and Pepi. The problem is that right now they seem more dangerous in open games than in matches where they have to maintain discipline and concentration for long periods. If the game opens up, they can compete; if not, I have more doubts.

Portugal

Portugal arrive looking far more settled. The 0-0 draw against Mexico wasn’t particularly impressive on the scoreboard, but it did leave a good impression in terms of control and attacking output. They were a side that dictated the tempo, created chances and didn’t give away too many opportunities at the back – something that carries considerable weight in this sort of match.

That said, they aren’t at full strength either. Cristiano Ronaldo is out injured, and key players such as Rúben Dias, Bernardo Silva and João Palhinha are also missing. These absences reduce experience and competitive weight, but they don’t leave the team without resources. Players like Bruno Fernandes, João Félix, Gonçalo Ramos, Pedro Neto and Gonçalo Guedes offer more than enough talent to make a difference.

What I like most about Portugal here is their ability to manage the game. They don’t need to rush things; they can move the ball calmly and choose their moments to attack wisely. Against a United States side that has struggled defensively recently, that strikes me as a significant advantage. Even without Cristiano, I see them as a more balanced side with more tools to dominate certain phases of the match.