Jon Rahm sets his sights on winning The Open 2026: the odds that could shake up the market
The 2026 Open Championship is upon us and marks the final major of the season, with Royal Birkdale set to host an edition that looks set to be particularly demanding. The Southport course will host the tournament for the 11th time, second only to St Andrews as the most frequent host venue in the history of The Open. The competition will begin on Thursday 16 July and end on Sunday 19 July.
Unlike other majors where distance off the tee can make all the difference, The Open tends to be a much more all-round test. Here, itās not enough just to hit it long. You have to know how to play it low, control the ball in the wind, avoid bunkers, cope with poor landings and be patient when the course doesnāt allow for an aggressive approach.
Royal Birkdale isnāt the most unpredictable links course on the circuit, but it is one of the fairest and most demanding. It is a course where the winner is usually a top-class player, capable of combining accuracy off the tee, excellent iron play and a cool head in tricky situations.
The Open Championship 2026: date, schedule and where itās being played
- Tournament: The Open Championship 2026
- Edition: 154th edition
- Dates: 16ā19 July 2026
- Official week: 12ā19 July 2026
- Course: Royal Birkdale Golf Club
- Location: Southport, Merseyside, England
- Par: 70
- Approximate length: 7,223 yards
- Prize fund: to be confirmed
- 2025 reference: $17 million
- 2025 winnerās prize: $3.1 million
Royal Birkdale sees a number of changes compared to the 2017 edition, when Jordan Spieth lifted the Claret Jug. The official course guide describes a highly demanding layout right from the first hole, with tricky tees, punishing bunkers, long par-4s and several holes where playing aggressively will not always be the right decision.
The weather could also play a significant role. The initial forecast for Southport over the four days of the tournament suggests mild temperatures, between 19 and 24 degrees, with a chance of showers on Friday and Sunday. It doesnāt look set to be a particularly wet week, but at Royal Birkdale the wind alone could be enough to completely change the course of the tournament.
Odds on the winner of the 2026 Open Championship
| Player | OddsĀ |
| Scottie Scheffler | 6.00 |
| Rory McIlroy | 8.00 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 17.00 |
| Jon Rahm | 17.00 |
| Xander Schauffele | 19.00 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 21.00 |
| Ludvig Ć berg | 23.00 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 26.00 |
Odds updated on July 06
The odds make it clear that the market sees two tiers. The first consists of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. The second, which is much more wide-open, includes Fleetwood, Rahm, Schauffele, Fitzpatrick, Ć berg and DeChambeau.
The key here is not to confuse the favourite with value. Scheffler is the most likely winner, but his odds are low for a tournament so dependent on the wind, the tee-off time and course conditions. Fleetwood has a lovely story behind playing at Southport, but that is precisely why he may be somewhat over-backed. And Rahm, although not the main favourite, does appear in an odds range where it starts to make sense to look for value.
Latest on the favourites
The market revolves around Scheffler, McIlroy, Fleetwood and Rahm. All four have genuine claims, but not all offer the same value.
Scheffler is the logical favourite. McIlroy is the player who suits links courses best if heās on form off the tee.
Fleetwood will have the support of the crowd and knows this type of golf inside out. Rahm isnāt attracting as much media attention, but he has the competitive edge to survive a tricky week.
Furthermore, the context of the season adds to the intrigue. The first three majors of 2026 were won by Rory McIlroy at the Masters, Aaron Rai at the PGA Championship and Wyndham Clark at the US Open, whilst Scheffler arrives as the reigning Open champion after winning at Royal Portrush in 2025.
Scottie Scheffler: the number one favourite
Scheffler is the favourite for one simple reason: he is currently the most reliable player in the world. His game from tee to green remains a cut above the rest and, when the course demands precision, patience and the avoidance of major mistakes, few golfers offer such assurance.
Royal Birkdale should suit him well because it is not a course that rewards inspiration alone. It rewards consistent good shots, placing the ball in the right areas and not giving away strokes in bunkers or the rough. Scheffler rarely takes himself out of tournaments, and at The Open thatās worth its weight in gold.
The question isnāt about his chances, but about the odds. At these prices, there isnāt much of a margin. When betting on a winner in a major with over 150 players, changeable winds and possible showers, odds of around 6.50 fall short unless you see him as clearly head and shoulders above the rest.
He could well win. But as a bet, itās not the most appealing.
Rory McIlroy: the most dangerous rival if his driver performs
McIlroy is probably the player with the best combination of experience, talent and adaptability to links golf. He knows how to play low scores, has the power to dominate the long par-4s and, when he finds his rhythm with the driver, can set himself up for much more comfortable second shots than most.
Royal Birkdale also holds fond memories for him. In 2017, he finished among the leaders on this very course, in a tournament won by Jordan Spieth. That doesnāt guarantee anything, but it confirms that the course isnāt too much for him.
The problem with Rory is the same as always: his ceiling is sky-high, but he can also go through spells of being out of it. At The Open, a double bogey from a bunker or a poor tee shot in a crosswind can turn an entire round on its head. If heās on form off the tee, heās Schefflerās main rival. If he isnāt, his odds donāt offer much of a margin either.
In terms of betting, I prefer him in Top 10 or Top 5 markets rather than as outright winner.
Tommy Fleetwood: a great fit, but watch out for the hype
Fleetwood is the tournamentās emotional favourite. He was born in Southport, knows the area inside out and will be playing with massive support from the crowd. At an Open at Royal Birkdale, itās impossible not to take him into account.
Whatās more, his game suits the course. Heās patient, a good ball-striker, knows how to compete on links courses and doesnāt need to turn the tournament into a display of power. On a course where the best decision will often be to play it safe, Fleetwood has the tools to be up there with the leaders.
But we need to keep a cool head here: just because the narrative is appealing doesnāt mean heās the best bet to win. Precisely because heās playing on home soil, his odds have been squeezed down considerably. Weāre no longer looking at a dark horse or a hidden opportunity in the market. Weāre looking at one of the most heavily backed players of the week.
Thatās why I much prefer him for a Top 10 finish rather than as winner. It makes sense to think heāll be in the mix, but expecting him to clinch his first major with all that home pressure on his shoulders is another story.
Jon Rahm: the odds that might offer the best value
Rahm isnāt as highly rated in the odds as Scheffler or McIlroy, but thatās precisely where the appeal lies. If weāre looking for a balance between actual probability and price, the Spaniard is one of the most attractive names on the board.
His profile is a good fit for The Open. He has power, character, the ability to play in windy conditions and winning experience in majors. Whatās more, heās one of those players who doesnāt need a perfect week to get in the mix: if heās on form with his irons and avoids getting frustrated on the greens, he can compete on any course.
Royal Birkdale isnāt a course to attack recklessly, and that will be the key. Rahm will need to keep his aggression in check, settle for pars and not go to war with the course. If he manages that, his odds of around 20.00 or higher offer better value than those of several players ranked ahead of him or on a par with him in the betting market.
He isnāt the number one favourite, but he is the most interesting pick if youāre looking for a winner bet.
Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick and Collin Morikawa: alternatives to watch
Schauffele deserves respect for one obvious reason: heās almost always in contention in majors. He rarely has a bad round and is mature enough not to fall apart if the course gets tougher. At mid-range odds, heās a solid rather than explosive option.
Matt Fitzpatrick also makes a lot of sense at Royal Birkdale. Heās English, precise, a good putter and more comfortable than many of his rivals on courses where strategy counts for as much as power. If conditions get tough, his profile becomes even more valuable.
Morikawa, for his part, is one of the best iron players in the world. He already knows what itās like to win The Open and, if he regains his confidence with the putter, he could be dangerous. With higher odds than the favourites, it wouldnāt be crazy to consider him as a long-shot bet or a Top 10 contender.
What Royal Birkdale is like: an analysis of a links course that leaves no room for error
Royal Birkdale is a classic links course, but quite different from other, wilder courses in the rotation. It is not a course where everything seems to depend on chance. It is fairer, more visually clear and more demanding in terms of decision-making.
Players will have to contend with:
- Constant and shifting winds.
- Highly punishing fairway bunkers.
- Fairways flanked by dunes.
- Long and demanding par-4s.
- Greens with slopes and escape areas.
- Holes where playing a wood off the tee may be a wiser choice than using a driver.
- Tricky approach shots from the rough or poor lie.
- A great deal of importance is placed on shot control.
The official guide highlights several particularly relevant points. Hole 1 already demands a very precise tee shot, with hazards on both sides. Hole 2 tempts many players to use a 3-wood rather than a driver. Hole 5 has been redesigned as a short, risk-reward par 4. Hole 15 will be a long par 3 of 241 yards. And the 18th, now with a modified tee, features very visible and dangerous bunkers for anyone looking to be aggressive with the driver.
In summary, Royal Birkdale should favour players who excel in:
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green.
- Accuracy off the tee.
- Mid and long irons.
- Low ball control.
- Scrambling.
- Patience on difficult courses.
- Genuine experience of links golf.
Thatās why Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Morikawa are such strong pre-tournament favourites.
Recent history of The Open Championship
| Year | Winner | Course |
| 2025 | Scottie Scheffler | Royal Portrush |
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele | Royal Troon |
| 2023 | Brian Harman | Royal Liverpool |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | St Andrews |
| 2021 | Collin Morikawa | Royal St Georgeās |
| 2020 | No se disputĆ³ | ā |
| 2019 | Shane Lowry | Royal Portrush |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari | Carnoustie |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | Royal Birkdale |
Recent history demonstrates something important: The Open isnāt always won by the main favourite. Scheffler and Schauffele were certainly among the top contenders, but Brian Harman, Shane Lowry and Francesco Molinari werenāt necessarily the most obvious names before the tournament.
The Open Championship 2026: prediction
Scheffler is the most likely winner, but Jon Rahm offers the best balance between odds and realistic chances of victory.
Check out our golf predictions for this tournament so you donāt miss out on any betting opportunities.
The American is the logical favourite, but his odds already factor in almost everything. Rory has a superb profile for Royal Birkdale, although he isnāt particularly cheap either. Fleetwood is a very interesting choice at the top, but his winnerās price is overly influenced by the home advantage.
Rahm, on the other hand, is in an odds range where there is genuine value. He has experience of winning majors, the ability to play in windy conditions, enough power not to struggle on the long holes, and the character to compete when the course becomes tricky. The key will be for him not to rush things and to be willing to play the ball onto the centre of the green when the hole calls for it.
If Royal Birkdale proves a tough course, with wind and without excessively low scores, Rahm has a better chance than the market suggests.
BeniThe conservative one
BetoThe bold one
