Belgian GP – predictions and odds – Formula 1 (19 July 2026)

Andrea Kimi Antonelli to win at 7/5 (2.40) is my favourite bet for the Belgian Grand Prix. The Mercedes rookie arrives at Spa-Francorchamps in fine form and heads the outright betting after a blistering season so far.

Spa is known as one of F1’s most challenging circuits, with long straights with high-speed corners and often unpredictable Spa-Francorchamps weather forecast. Those conditions reward confidence and consistency, and despite Antonelli struggling here last season, he has emerged as a different beast this campaign and has all it takes to claim another win.

George Russell is likely to provide the biggest threat. The Mercedes pair have consistently been among the quickest cars over a race distance, and Russell’s experience around Spa makes him a genuine contender at 3/1 (4.00). However, Antonelli has regularly had the edge in outright pace this season, which explains why bookmakers have installed him as Belgian GP favourite.

Lewis Hamilton‘s remarkable record at Spa makes him an attractive option at 7/2 (4.50), particularly if the forecasted showers create tricky conditions. Few drivers manage changing weather better than the British racing legend.

Charles Leclerc arrives full of confidence after victory at the British Grand Prix and could easily challenge if Ferrari’s race pace matches its recent improvements.

Despite sitting further down the market at 12/1 (13.00), Max Verstappen can never be completely discounted at one of his strongest circuits. Spa has often brought out the best in the Dutchman, although Red Bull’s inconsistent form this season makes him a riskier proposition than in previous years.

The weather could ultimately be the biggest factor in deciding the outcome. Rain is currently expected during Friday’s running before conditions improve across the weekend, but Spa’s famous microclimate means forecasts can change rapidly. Waiting until after qualifying before placing your Belgian Grand Prix bets remains a sensible strategy, as both grid position and the latest weather updates can significantly influence the odds.