Luke Humphries vs Cameron Menzies (World Matchplay): odds and bets 20.07.2026

Luke Humphries begins his World Matchplay campaign against Cameron Menzies in a first-round tie that promises considerably more quality than the outright prices suggest. Humphries is a former champion at the Winter Gardens and arrives as one of the leading contenders for the title, although Menzies has recently produced some of his best darts of the season.

The key question is whether the Scotsman can sustain his scoring across a race to ten legs. Menzies is capable of matching Humphries for short periods and will not be intimidated by a high-tempo contest, but the favourite possesses greater consistency on both the treble 20 and the outer ring. I expect a competitive opening before Humphries gradually establishes control.

Luke Humphries

Humphries arrives in Blackpool as the world number two and with renewed momentum behind him. He recently retained the US Darts Masters, recording averages of 105.70 against Stephen Bunting, 101.57 against Gian van Veen and 104.05 in an 8-7 final victory over Luke Littler. Those numbers provide strong evidence that his best scoring rhythm has returned at an ideal time.

His victory in New York followed success alongside Littler at the World Cup of Darts. Humphries has therefore collected two significant titles in quick succession, responding well after a period in which he regularly reached the closing stages of events without converting those opportunities into trophies. He again looks confident when matches become tight.

The Winter Gardens also carries positive memories for him. Humphries won the World Matchplay in 2024, producing averages above 100 throughout the tournament before defeating Michael van Gerwen in the final. His title defence ended with a 10-8 first-round defeat to Gian van Veen last year, so I expect him to be particularly focused on avoiding another early exit.

At his best, Humphries combines heavy scoring with excellent board management. He is comfortable switching targets when the treble 20 becomes blocked and usually leaves manageable finishes rather than relying on spectacular checkouts. His ability to follow a loose visit with a maximum or a 140 is one of the main differences between him and most players outside the elite group.

There can still be brief spells in which his scoring level falls away, particularly after missed doubles. Menzies has enough power to exploit that sort of passage. Over an extended leg format, however, I trust Humphries to make the necessary adjustments and produce several decisive breaks of throw.

Cameron Menzies

Menzies arrives with genuine confidence after winning Players Championship 23, his first PDC ranking title of the season. He defeated Cristo Reyes 8-5 in the final after overcoming Josh Rock, Dave Chisnall, Charlie Manby, Cor Dekker and Nathan Potter during an impressive day in Leicester.

The standard of his performances was encouraging. Menzies averaged 97.54 against Rock, 96.18 against Manby and 95.55 in the final. He also defeated Chisnall despite his opponent averaging above 98, demonstrating that he can remain composed when placed under sustained scoring pressure.

His form did not disappear immediately after lifting the trophy. At the following Players Championship event, he recorded averages close to 96 in victories over Rob Owen and Viktor Tingström before losing 6-5 to Owen Bates. He then averaged 94.81 in another deciding-leg defeat against Jan Schmidt at the European Darts Open.

Menzies is now ranked inside the world’s top 30 and has become a far more reliable floor player. His scoring can be particularly dangerous when the first dart sits cleanly above the treble 20, as his quick release allows him to build momentum without overthinking the following visits. He is also capable of producing maximums in clusters.

The concern is his record in longer televised matches. Menzies made his World Matchplay debut last year but was beaten 10-2 by Danny Noppert. His emotional intensity can work in his favour when he starts well, although missed opportunities occasionally lead to visible frustration and a decline in scoring. Against Humphries, he cannot afford to allow one poor leg to become three or four.

Format and key match-up data

The first round is played as a race to ten legs, with a player normally required to win by two clear legs. The extended format should favour Humphries because his higher baseline level has more time to influence the contest, even if Menzies begins strongly.

Humphries has won five of their six most recent meetings. Their latest encounter was an excellent European Championship match in October 2025, when Humphries recovered from 8-6 behind to win 10-9. He averaged 103.64, while Menzies produced 101.53, and the pair combined for 15 maximums.

That match demonstrated both the threat posed by Menzies and the difference in their closing ability. The Scotsman played well enough to defeat most opponents but could not complete the job once Humphries increased the pressure. I see a similar pattern developing here, although I expect the favourite to create separation earlier this time.