Michael van Gerwen vs Ryan Joyce (World Grand Prix) Odds and Bets 28.09.2026

This match-up has more to it than the number nine seeding would suggest. Van Gerwen is coming into the match on the back of a setback: he was knocked out in the first round of the World Series Finals just a few days ago by Daryl Gurney, and a few weeks earlier he had suffered a heavy 6-1 defeat to Niko Springer in the second round of the German Darts Grand Prix, a tournament in which he was also the defending champion. Ranked seventh in the world – one place lower than a year ago – the Dutchman is going through the most inconsistent spell of his season just as the fixture list is getting busier.

And he faces precisely the opponent who has recently got the better of him. The overall head-to-head record remains overwhelmingly in Van Gerwen’s favour, with ten victories over Joyce accumulated over the years, but the statistic that really matters now is another. Relentless Joyce has won their most recent head-to-head encounters, including a memorable knockout at the Grand Slam of Darts, where the Englishman eventually staged a comeback with a double 10 finish to send Van Gerwen home before the knockout stages for the first time since 2010.

“Relentless” is not a name chosen at random; he is not the most flamboyant player on the circuit, but he is a thorn in his side, he doesn’t give away legs and he knows how to deliver in tight finishes – which is precisely where Van Gerwen has shown the most cracks this year.

Joyce, however, is not in the best of form this week. He lost the final of the Baltic Sea Darts Open in Kiel just a few days ago, going down 8-4 to Luke Woodhouse. Although reaching a European final does say something about his current form and his ever-present competitive spirit. He’s a player who keeps a low media profile but is a solid fixture on the circuit: two ranking titles in his career and a semi-final in this very tournament in 2024, so the compulsory doubles format is no stranger to him. In fact, rather than big scores, the outer ring is his greatest strength.

The feeling is that Van Gerwen still has more potential when he’s at his best, but that ‘when’ is becoming increasingly significant. A player with six Grand Prix wins to his name can never be entirely ruled out in this scenario, but the current state of mind and the recent head-to-head record between the two suggest a much more evenly matched contest than the rankings would suggest.

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Joyce hándicap +1.5

1/2

Play

Therefore, as our main bet, we’re going to go for the +1.5 handicap in Joyce’s favour at 1.50 on Betvictor Bookmaker. And for a riskier option, a bet on him to win the match at 2.62.