Paraguay v France – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (4 July 2026)

France arrive in Philadelphia in devastating form. Nine points from nine in the group stage, 13 goals scored, and Mbappé with six goals in the tournament, level with Messi in the top scorers’ table. Against Sweden in the round of 32, he was back to his usual self: a brace, overwhelming dominance and the sense that this team has the momentum to go a long way. Barcola and Olise add a threat down the flanks that few defences in the world can cope with, and Deschamps has finally found a starting eleven that runs like clockwork.

Up next is Paraguay, and this is where things get tricky. Because La Albirroja have achieved something very few expected. After losing 4–1 to the United States on matchday one, they regrouped, qualified as one of the best third-placed teams and then knocked Germany out on penalties. Gustavo Alfaro has built something that goes far beyond individual talent: a team with an identity, with a defensive tenacity that cost Germany ninety minutes plus a penalty shoot-out. Every tackle, every duel, every 50-50 ball was fought for until the very end.

The problem for Paraguay is that Germany do not have Mbappé, nor Barcola, nor Olise. The gap in attacking quality between the two sides is considerably greater than it was in the round of 32, and Alfaro knows it. He will have the team sitting deep from the first minute, will try to prevent France from finding the spaces between the lines, and will be banking on the opposition making a mistake or on a set-piece. But if they fall behind, Paraguay will have to open up, and that is when Mbappé becomes an unmanageable problem.

What the Albirroja have certainly shown is that they possess attacking resources on the counter-attack. Enciso and Almirón are players capable of causing damage when the game opens up, and against Germany they showed enough flashes of quality not to be dismissed as a threat. If France relax for a moment, or if Alfaro manages to get his forwards into good receiving positions, a Paraguayan goal is by no means a pipe dream.

Les Bleus will see the match through, but Paraguay have too much pride and too many attacking options to leave Philadelphia without getting on the scoreboard.