Spain v Austria – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (2 July 2026)

Spain arrive in Los Angeles as Group H leaders with seven points, having not conceded a single goal throughout the group stage and boasting the most solid defence in the tournament so far. Following an opening draw against Cape Verde, they bounced back with victories over Saudi Arabia (4–0) and Uruguay (1–0), giving the impression of a side that is improving with every match. But the last match cast a significant shadow: both Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino picked up injuries, and although the RFEF has not officially ruled them out, the presence of either player on Thursday is highly doubtful. Losing one of the squad’s two most dangerous wingers would already be a problem. Losing both would significantly alter the match.

Opposing them is Austria, who reached this round in the most dramatic fashion imaginable. They qualified in second place in Group J thanks to a 96th-minute goal from Kalajdžić that levelled the score at 3–3 against Algeria when the Austrians were already out of the running. Rangnick has built a team with character, with Alaba as the defensive linchpin, Arnautović as the main attacking threat, and Sabitzer and Laimer providing intensity in midfield. This is not a team to be underestimated, and the fact that they’ve been through such an emotional rollercoaster could work both for and against them: they may arrive either euphoric or mentally exhausted.

The head-to-head record between the two sides clearly favours Spain, who have won nine of their sixteen previous encounters. But in a knockout tie, past form carries less weight than current form, and Austria have shown they can score and keep their cool under pressure.

La Roja have the squad and the system to see this match through, but without their two wingers at full fitness, their play may lose the incisiveness that causes so much damage. Austria aren’t here to play for a draw and have the ability to score. A match decided by a one- or two-goal margin seems the most likely outcome.