York RLFC vs Leeds Prediction (Super League) Odds and Bets 23.08.2026

York Knights welcome Leeds Rhinos to an LNER Community Stadium that will be packed with fans for Round 24 of the Super League this Sunday. Leeds came into the round top of the table on points difference, level with Wigan on 36 points.

York sit 11th with 14 points, but I would not dismiss them as harmless at home after seeing them beat both Hull KR and St Helens this season. For me, though, the biggest difference is in attacking output: Leeds have consistently created and finished far more chances.

York Knights vs Leeds Rhinos: date, time and match details

How York Knights and Leeds Rhinos are shaping up

York Knights form

York have found things difficult over the past few weeks. Their last five league matches have produced one win and four defeats. The bright spot was a 34-32 home victory over St Helens, showing that York can cause much stronger sides problems when they get their attacking game going.

Across the season, the Knights have scored 454 points and conceded 665 in 23 matches. That works out at roughly 19.7 points scored and 28.9 conceded per game. For me, that is exactly the problem against this opponent: York can produce good spells of rugby, but repeatedly giving Leeds good field position or easy opportunities could prove costly.

Leeds Rhinos form

Leeds arrive after a 20-16 home defeat to Leigh, a result that ended their unbeaten Super League record at Headingley this season. I would not read too much into one defeat. Across their last five matches, they have recorded three wins and two defeats, scoring 162 points and conceding 90.

Their season-long numbers remain excellent. Leeds have scored 784 points and 133 tries in 23 matches, figures comfortably ahead of York’s. A play-off place is already secured; the aim now is to finish the regular season on top.

Key factors behind my York vs Leeds prediction

1. Leeds’ attack is a major difference

This is the first thing I look at. Leeds have scored 133 tries compared with York’s 83, while they also lead 143 to 92 in clean breaks. They have also made 32,262 metres, compared with York’s 28,151. These are not numbers built during a short run of good form, but figures accumulated across the whole season.

2. The defensive gap matters just as much

Based on the official points totals and league table, Leeds have conceded 346 points in 23 matches, around 15 per game. York have conceded 665, or roughly 28.9 per match. That gives Leeds far more room to have an imperfect afternoon.

3. York have enough upset potential to keep me sensible

York have already beaten Hull KR and St Helens during their first Super League campaign, so I do not want to treat Sunday’s match as decided purely by the league table. A full stadium in York is another reason not to get carried away with overly aggressive handicaps.

4. Leeds still have something concrete to play for

Leeds and Wigan came into Round 24 level on 36 points, with Leeds ahead on points difference. For me, that is a much stronger betting argument than vaguely saying one team is “more motivated”.

5. The outright price looks safe rather than especially generous

Leeds are currently 2/13 to win, with York at 6/1 and the draw at 40/1 in the three-way match market. At 2/13, the Rhinos’ price implies roughly an 86.7% probability before accounting for the market margin.

York Knights vs Leeds Rhinos statistics

The season totals come from the latest official statistics after 23 matches, while the per-game figures are calculated from those totals. What stands out to me is not one isolated statistic, but how consistent the overall trend is. Leeds score almost 14.5 more points per match, concede roughly 14 fewer and have a significantly better clean-break count.

York Knights vs Leeds Rhinos: head-to-head

There is not a particularly large sample of recent Super League meetings between these sides. Their only previous meeting in the competition came at Headingley in February, when Leeds won 46-14 after leading 22-6 at half-time.

York Knights vs Leeds Rhinos odds

Odds checked on 21 August 2026. Prices may change before kick-off.