Which FA Cup First Round Odds Point to the Biggest Upsets?
The FA Cup first round odds tell a more interesting story than the familiar David-versus-Goliath posters. Several non-league clubs have a genuine market-backed chance of beating EFL opponents. Here is our giant-killing index, built around the price of a non-league win after 90 minutes rather than romance alone.
FA Cup Giant-Killing Index: Nine Ties Ranked
The shorter the non-league win price, the higher the ranking. These are observed market snapshots, not guaranteed prices at a BetBrothers-listed bookmaker.
| Rank | Non-league team vs EFL club | Win odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York City vs Northampton | 17/20 | 54.1% |
| 2 | Boreham Wood vs Wigan | 24/25 | 51.0% |
| 3 | Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury | 27/10 | 27.0% |
| 4 | Kidderminster vs Doncaster | 313/100 | 24.2% |
| 5 | Hornchurch vs Blackpool | 16/5 | 23.8% |
| 6 | Wimborne vs Crawley | 57/10 | 14.9% |
| 7 | Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby | 38/5 | 11.6% |
| 8 | Oxford City vs Leicester | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| 9 | Cray Wanderers vs Stockport | 31/2 | 6.1% |
Which Matches Offer the Most Plausible Shock?
York’s price defies the usual league-gap narrative. The market nevertheless gives the non-league hosts the edge over Northampton. Boreham Wood are another case where calling the result an upset and calling it unlikely are two different things.
Eastleigh and Kidderminster occupy the more familiar danger zone: home advantage, manageable prices and professional opponents who cannot expect an easy passage. Hornchurch also merit attention against Blackpool, in front of their own supporters.
At the other end, Oxford City’s 3G pitch provides an unusual setting for Leicester’s visit. Oxford chief executive Justin Merritt offered the perfect cup-night invitation: “You’ve got to dream and be positive.” The Foxes remain clear favourites, whatever the surface.
How to Read the FA Cup Upset Odds
An implied chance is simply the reciprocal of decimal odds before bookmaker margin is removed. It is a pricing signal, not a forecast guaranteed to come true. Different bookmakers supplied the strongest prices in this snapshot, so the figures should not be treated as one internally consistent probability model.
Most importantly, a 90-minute draw does not count as an outright match-result win. A to qualify bet instead covers progression under the competition’s knockout rules. Never compare those two markets as though they were interchangeable.
Four FA Cup Betting Markets Worth Checking
Sometimes the sharper angle is avoiding an outright long shot. Consider these possibilities before adding a selection to your bet slip.
Compare available markets through our FA Cup betting sites guide. Match the quoted price and settlement rules before using any bookmaker go-link or promotional banner.
When Are the Featured FA Cup Ties?
Oxford City host Leicester on Friday 6 November at 19:45 GMT. Stafford face Grimsby at noon on Sunday; Cray meet Stockport at 14:15 and Wimborne play Crawley at 15:00. The remaining highlighted Saturday fixtures are scheduled for 15:00. Several Sunday ties receive live TNT Sports coverage, with Cray also on BBC Two.
Check team sheets and the final 90-minute market before choosing a side; the best story in the draw is not automatically the best bet.
