US Open 2026: Analysis, Prediction and Betting Odds
The US Open 2026 is here and, as every year, it arrives with huge anticipation. The third major of the season brings together the best golfers in the world at one of the most demanding venues on the calendar: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, a historic course that will test every aspect of the players’ games.
Unlike other tournaments where power can make a big difference, the US Open usually rewards consistency, strategy and the ability to handle pressure. And this year does not look like it will be an exception.
With Scottie Scheffler the main favourite according to the odds, Jon Rahm arriving in one of his best moments of the season and Rory McIlroy looking to rediscover his best version, everything points to one of the most open and interesting editions in recent years. Let’s analyse it!
US Open 2026: Date, Schedule and Venue
Dates: June 18-21, 2026
Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Location: Southampton, New York, United States
Par: 70
Approximate length: 7,400 yards
Prize purse: $21.5 million
Winner’s prize: $4.3 million
Shinnecock Hills is considered one of the most prestigious courses in the United States and belongs to the select group of venues that have hosted multiple editions of the US Open. Its links-style design, unusual for American golf, makes the wind one of the most decisive factors of the tournament.
US Open 2026 Golf Winner Odds
The odds place Scheffler as the main favourite thanks to his outstanding consistency and his position as world number one.
However, the gap between him and Rahm looks wider than the recent performances of both players suggest, which makes the Spaniard one of the best-value options of the week.
Shinnecock demands control of low ball flights, wind management, long irons, recovery around the greens and plenty of patience. The forecast points to a mild week, with breeze, humidity and possible showers on Thursday and Sunday, which could make the tournament even tougher.
Latest News on the Main Contenders
The market is focusing much of the win probability on Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy.
All three arrive with strong arguments to win, although they offer very different profiles for a week in which the wind and the difficulty of Shinnecock Hills will be decisive.
Scottie Scheffler: The Number One Favourite
Scheffler remains the most consistent player on the planet. His dominance from tee to green continues to make the difference and he is rarely out of contention in major championships. His ability to minimise mistakes makes him a natural contender for any US Open. Few golfers can generate so many birdie opportunities while making so few serious errors.
His main strength at Shinnecock Hills lies in his precision with long irons and his strategic management of demanding courses. The American rarely needs to take unnecessary risks, and that usually translates into very solid results when par becomes a good score.
Even so, recent weeks have shown some doubts with the putter. On a course where every birdie chance has huge value, he will need to improve on the greens to fully justify his status as the main favourite.
Jon Rahm: The Spaniard Arrives with Confidence
If we are talking about pure value, few names stand out as much as Jon Rahm.
Rahm arrives probably in his best form of the season. After an inconsistent start, the Spaniard has regained prominence thanks to several strong performances, including victories in Mexico and Hong Kong, as well as a second-place finish at the PGA Championship.
His profile fits perfectly with what Shinnecock Hills demands. Historically, he has performed very well on courses affected by wind and in tournaments where patience is just as important as aggression. He also has one of the best combinations on the circuit in terms of power and control from the tee.
The current feeling is that he is closer to his best version than he was a year ago. His experience in majors and his ability to compete under pressure make him a real threat to Scheffler. If he maintains the level shown over the last few months, he will have very serious chances of lifting the trophy.
Rahm also arrives with a very interesting profile: he is back inside the world top 10, comes from finishing second at the PGA Championship, has won this year in Hong Kong and Mexico, and has collected several recent runner-up finishes, including at Valderrama.
Rory McIlroy: Talent Mixed with Doubts
McIlroy remains one of the most talented players on the circuit. His potential to dominate any course is still intact, and few golfers have such a complete combination of power and creativity.
However, the weeks leading up to the tournament have left some doubts regarding his performance from the tee. The Northern Irishman himself has admitted that he is still looking for maximum confidence with the driver, a key factor in a US Open where mistakes are usually punished heavily.
On the positive side, he has plenty of experience on big stages and the ability to produce exceptional rounds when he finds rhythm. If he manages to improve his accuracy during the first few days of the tournament, he could become the main rival to Scheffler and Rahm.
What Shinnecock Hills Is Like: Analysis of a Course That Does Not Forgive Mistakes
Shinnecock Hills does not usually produce low scores. Historically, champions have had to survive more than dominate.
Players will have to deal with:
- Very fast greens with strong slopes.
- Visually wide fairways, but extremely demanding pin positions.
- Numerous natural elevation changes.
- Constant wind coming from the Atlantic.
- Tall and punishing rough.
- Major importance of approach shots from over 175 yards.
The course especially favours players who stand out in:
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green.
- Long-iron performance.
- Scrambling.
- Playing in windy conditions.
- Mental management of difficult rounds.
For this reason, profiles such as Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm usually adapt particularly well to this type of setup.
Recent US Open Winners
Over the last decade, the tournament has rewarded very complete players with enormous mental strength.
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | J.J. Spaun |
| 2024 | Bryson DeChambeau |
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark |
| 2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| 2021 | Jon Rahm |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau |
One interesting trend is that several champions arrived at the tournament in excellent form, although not necessarily as the main favourites in the betting market.
US Open 2026: Prediction
Looking at the form of the main contenders, the characteristics of Shinnecock Hills, each player’s historical adaptation to this type of course and the odds available, the player offering the best balance between real winning probability and betting value is Jon Rahm.
Scottie Scheffler remains the most likely winner, but his odds already fully reflect that status. Rahm, on the other hand, arrives in an upward trend, already knows what it takes to win this tournament and has the ideal profile for a week marked by wind, strategic demands and the pressure of a major.
BeniThe conservative one
BetoThe bold one
