Spain v Uruguay – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (27 June 2026)

Spain and Uruguay go into the final matchday of the group stage with very different objectives. Whilst the Spanish side still need to secure their place in the knockout stages and fight for top spot, Uruguay must win after a World Cup start that has fallen well short of expectations.

Spain

Luis de la Fuente’s side put in an excellent performance in their 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia. This was a much more dynamic, aggressive and direct Spain than the one we saw in their opening match against Cape Verde.

Lamine Yamal’s introduction completely transformed Spain’s attack, bringing unpredictability and depth. Dani Olmo and Mikel Oyarzabal also stood out, with the latter putting in an outstanding performance, scoring two goals and providing an assist. Furthermore, Pedri had a major influence on the team’s build-up play by operating closer to Rodri.

Beyond the result, Spain regained a very positive momentum and once again demonstrated the calibre that makes them one of the teams tipped to go far in this World Cup. However, they have not yet secured top spot in the group. A defeat could complicate their qualification and their future fixture, so this does not seem like a match to take any chances with.

Uruguay

Uruguay’s situation is far more worrying. Marcelo Bielsa’s side have drawn against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, two results that leave them on the brink of elimination.

The team are struggling to create chances, lack continuity in their play and are making far too many individual errors. Furthermore, key players such as Fede Valverde, Bentancur and Ugarte have yet to find their best form.

The only flashes of positivity have come sporadically from Maxi Araújo and Canobbio, but the overall impression is of a team that is stuck in a rut, lacking confidence and a long way from the standard expected before the tournament.

Our prediction: Spain to win (odds 1.50)

The Spanish side arrive with much greater confidence following their resounding victory over Saudi Arabia and know they need to win to secure a favourable position ahead of the knockout stages.

Uruguay, by contrast, are raising many concerns and have failed to beat either Saudi Arabia or Cape Verde. As well as the results, the overall impression of their play also clearly favours Spain.

I expect a focused Spanish side, fielding a competitive starting eleven and fully aware that they cannot afford another slip-up. For all these reasons, I see Spain as favourites to take all three points and round off the group stage with an important victory ahead of the round of 16.